My answer to Is there a possibility Brexit will lead to the collapse of the United Kingdom?
Answer by Desmond Last:
Collapse not totally. But certainly enough to affect the Public Sector budgets including that of Defense and new investment in the U.K. It could lead to the U.K being alienated from the World. Everywhere in Economic and Political systems worldwide Governments and Companies are making new alliances and forming new co-operative arrangements. Nothing in the World ever stays still. Change is the only constant. It is notable that we are not a prominent part in any of the new Global Alliances.
It is not as simple as Theresa May and Johnson saying please sign on the dotted line for a U.K Trade Agreement. Each country is a member of an Association or Economic Group and the other countries will not want a U.K Trade Deal that has a negative effect on their economies. In fact economic groups may have stipulation that individual country arrangements are not allowed.
This is what an Official of EFTA said in reply to a question I asked him about U.K Membership of EFTA and the CEN (EFTA is a economic community of non E.U European countries)
“As you probably are aware of, a dialogue between the UK and the EU is just starting, so it is a bit too early to know how the UK will negotiate membership in various European institutions” Thorfinnur Omarsson Senior Information and Communication Officer EFTA – European Free Trade Association
The CEN is a European body which harmonizes Standards – including those of manufacturing companies in the U.K who are in the E.U.
No certainty there and money and manufactures needs certainty.
Then there is economic dumping. The E.U has just imposed steel quotas on China – will the U.K to do the same once it pulls out of the E.U? Will China sign a trade agreement with the U.K which affects Tata Steel – it has just signed a new multi-billion trade deal with India.
This is not the era of Gun Boat diplomacy. The U.K is not in a position to demand anything.
The U.K is now alone in the World. It is for all intents and purposes out of the E.U. This means that any new co-operative arrangements the E.U makes with the rest of the World will not include the U.K – or Scotland for that matter.
The U.K without Europe and possibly NATO has no place in deciding World Affairs. The G20 is for Global alliances – that is the E.U and the future inclusion of the Asian and African Groups.
Where is the U.K in all of these new proposed G20 methods of allocating capital for supply lead investment rather than demand lead capital growth? We can no longer lead in the G20 as part of the E.U – we must now be a bystander.
Money is comfortable when it is invested in multiple baskets, it spreads the risk – the U.K is now a single risky basket.
Brexit is a Golden opportunity for the U.K to lead reform in the E.U. However the U.K Government does not seem capable of ‘seizing the moment’ or for that matter even understanding what is the Brexit vote meant. The people said that they wanted to ensure economic sovereignty and security of Borders as well as deciding how they wanted to live their lives. Somehow that got translated to the possible withdrawal from the Single Market and no attempt at E.U reform.
Cameron did not even allow the Civil Service to prepare for a Brexit result and so sure was he of the U.K voting to remain his E.U reform cannot be taken seriously
There is plenty of support in the E.U for reform – and we are walking away from it. Why?
Just because Junkers says that there should be not be a popular moment for reform does not mean the people of Europe agree. It is time to take the E.U out of the hands of the bureaucrats and give it back to the people – Junkers would perhaps agree but he does not know how to. Neither did Cameron – and so we ended up with Brexit.
I believe that the U.K is going to be left out in the cold. I do not see why manufactures would want to stay or invest in the U.K. This week statements were made in Parliament stating that the U.K will be able to make its own legislation for imports. For the car manufactures that would be a nightmare and so too for other foreign companies in the U.K.
All over Europe right now they are knocking on the doors of U.K foreign owned companies and saying we are the known.The U.K is the unknown.
The people of the U.K should be demanding that before we Brexit a sincere attempt to form an alliance with those who want a reformed E.U should be made. We can take the lead in reforming the E.U
There is too much to lose and everything to gain by doing so.
We have paid billions and billions into the E.U. We own part of the E.U bureaucracy – are we just to walk away from it without a reform attempt?
The U.K has a current public debt of £1.7 trillion which increases at the rate of £5200 a second.. It is living beyond its means. In order to increase public expenditure for infrastructure projects it needs a new Economic Strategy. Where is it and who with?
Only 20 per cent of the U.K economy is manufacturing and it tales 3 service industry jobs to replace on manufacturing. Where is the U.K’s future economic growth to come from? Service Industries are available in all countries – they do not need ours.
Trade Agreement may not be the solid Gold the U.K Government thinks they are.
The U.K will never succeed on its own. Already companies are preparing themselves to pick the best of the U.K Economy and transfer it to their own countries. Companies will not wait for the U.K to come out with a Brexit hard or soft. Money wants to know where and when it is going.
This link is to to a company that is going to make money out of Brexit – it is in Germany.. What are we going to replace the money that leaves the U.K with – more borrowing and Public Sector cuts?
As we have seen with Unilever this week the U.K is a highly competitive market with wafer thin margins.
The people of the U.K are already seeing their earned £ buy less – which will affect retail sales. The U.K will not be so attractive as sales are reduced as the people have less money to spend. – unless prices go up. The car manufactures have already raised prices this will also effect Public Sector borrowing requirement and infaltion.
The U.K is going to be at the mercy of those who export to the U.K – if the U.K wants to buy from other markets it will first have to make a trading arrangement – until then it will be an opportunity for importers to increase margins and there is nothing the U.K can do about it – this will push up inflation and so too mortgage lending rates. Many new U.K homeowners have bought homes because there are none to rent – they will see their disposable income reduced. Some will lose their homes.
It will not be Johnson or May who next week has to pay 4p a litre more for fuel – it will be the one million people on zero hours contacts.
We are leaving the E.U. A community we have been in for 40 years with all the association and leverage that comes with that continuity.
The people of the U.K were asked a do or die question. It does not mean that the U.K Economy has to die with the answer.