My answer to Is China entering a recession?
Answer by Desmond Last:
It may be that the term ‘recession’ is a economic term that we should redefine. The increasing concentration of ‘Global Centres of Capital Liquidity’ have meant that many countries are only solvent because they have been willing to relinquish econmic sovereignty.
This does not yet apply to China. China is still firmly in charge of it economy. But for how much longer? Will its expansion into new areas of Interest around the World mean that events out of its control dictate its economic position as has happened to the West? China is choosing to use its Military to underpin its economic position.
It could instead be using its Military to bring Peace, which has a dividend that is much more productive.
Should Trump become President China may face some real competition. No more Obama Red Carpet instead some hard-headed trade negotiation.
The increase in China’s militarisation over the last decade has to be paid for and China’s economic growth can no longer be fueled by ignoring the increased health risks to its citizens.
You cannot grow an economy if your citizens are not able to go to work becasue of toxic poisoning.
China has decided to use militarisation to gain strategic advantage. This is more costly than using economic co-operation. It has sought to gain control of key industries in the West and other regions, without considering how to allow the maintenance of economic independence by those it chooses to invest in.
It has invested in heavy industry without any consideration of what will happen when the market is flooded. Now it is laying off workers in its steel industry.
It has built on a reef at considerable cost without calculating what the rising sea levels will do to the usability of the reef.
It had chosen not to be a World leader in Peace, by-passing the legal requirements of the Security Council, and has taken a back seat to fighting terrorism.
I make these points to show that China has no Peace Dividend. Yes it has managed to take its economy to its present position as a Global Power in a very short time. But it has come from a very low base.
It does not have the Labour cost of those it competes with and it has not funded Climate Change Law implementation as others have.
Whilst I do not think China will go into recession I do believe that it will begin to be much more careful about how and where it invests its money.
This may have the same effect on those who depend on China as if it were in recession.